Finding your pace in the three-speed world economy
By
Sabine Vollmer
April 22 2013
The slow recovery in the US and the euro-zone crisis dampened
economic growth worldwide last year and prompted the International
Monetary Fund to lower its global economic growth projections for 2013.
Europe’s economy is expected to contract yet again this year, but the US
and particularly economies in Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and Latin
America are beginning to see higher growth, the IMF projected in its
spring
2013 world economic outlook.
The IMF estimated that the global economy will expand by 3.3% this
year, revised down from a 3.6% estimate six months ago. The revised
expansion is expected to be driven largely by an accelerated growth in
emerging market and developing economies. Supported by resilient
domestic consumption and functioning labour markets, this expansion in
global output is projected to steadily rise to 4% and 5.7% in emerging
market and developing economies in 2014.
IMF
Managing Director Christine Lagarde (at left) has said the three-speed
recovery isn’t good enough for an increasingly interconnected global
economy and urged policymakers worldwide to take customised action that
would allow the global economy a “full-speed recovery”.
The euro zone must press ahead with its banking union, Lagarde said.
In the US, leaders need to fix the pace of fiscal adjustment. And
fast-growing emerging markets need to strengthen financial regulation
and invest in infrastructure.
With inflation largely under control thanks to lower food and energy
prices, “emerging market economies are doing well,” the IMF outlook
stated. “The main macroeconomic challenge in emerging market and
developing economies is to recalibrate policy settings to avoid
overstimulation and rebuild macroeconomic policy buffers.”
Risks that could derail the accelerated growth and affect world
output include rapid credit growth, such as in China’s shadow banking
system, an unexpected slowdown in key emerging markets or investment
cutbacks, especially in Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, a
group also known as the BRICS.
Asia. Projections suggest the region is starting to
recover after economic growth dipped to 6.6% in 2012 from 8.1% in 2011.
Asia’s GDP growth is projected to reach 7.1% in 2013 and 7.3% in 2014.
Robust domestic consumption and investment and increased external
demand, especially as the US economy improves, are projected to boost
economic growth in China to 8% this year and 8.2% in 2014. A remaining
risk that is attracting more attention is China’s shadow banking
system. Unregulated lenders are responsible for about half of the
nation’s borrowing.
The purchase power of a growing class of consumers, a better monsoon
season and a switch to pro-growth policies, including proposed reforms
to clarify tax laws and stabilise the tax regime, are expected to raise
GDP growth in India to 5.7% in 2013 and 6.2% in 2014. Economic growth
dropped to 4% in 2012 from 7.7% the previous year.
Structural challenges, such as supply and labour bottlenecks, and an
elevated inflation will keep India’s GDP growth from accelerating
faster.
The group of ASEAN-5 countries (Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, the
Philippines and Vietnam) is projected to see economic growth of 5.9% in
2013 and 5.5% in 2014. Indonesia leads the group, followed by the
Philippines.
Latin America and the Caribbean. Strong domestic
demand – supported by easy financing conditions and high commodity
prices – is projected to help raise GDP growth in the region to 3.4% in
2013 and 3.9% in 2014. In the past two years, economic growth dropped to
3% from 4.6% in 2011.
Brazil’s economy, especially, is expected to do better. Economic
growth in Brazil slowed to less than 1% last year, but new policies
targeted at boosting private investment should start taking effect this
year.
Mexico and most other Central American economies are projected to expand in line with potential, or about 3.5% to 4.5%.
Africa. Exports and domestic consumption and
investment contributed to 4.8% economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa
last year, down slightly from 5.3% in 2011 due partly to civil conflict
in Mali and Guinea-Bissau and the interruption of oil exports from South
Sudan. Growth projections for the region are 5.6% in 2013 and 6.1% in
2014.
Investments in infrastructure and production are expected to help
boost economic growth in Nigeria to 7.2% this year and 7% in 2014, up
from 6.3% in 2012.
Increased oil production is helping the Angolan economy expand a
projected 6.2% in 2013 and 7.3% in 2014. Cote d’Ivoire’s economy is
rebounding following election-related disruptions two years ago and
expected to grow 8% per year in 2013 and 2014.
South Africa, which saw labour stoppages last year, is projected to
generate economic growth of 2.8% in 2013 and 3.3% in 2014. That’s up
from 2.5% in 2012.
Central and eastern Europe and Russia. The euro-zone
crisis spilled over into emerging economies in central and eastern
European such as Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia, Hungary and Turkey. But
economic growth in emerging Europe is projected to reach 2.2% in 2013
and 2.8% in 2014, up from 1.6% in 2012. Growth in Turkey is expected to
accelerate, to 3.4% in 2013 and 3.7% in 2014.
Oil and gas exports are projected to help Russia’s economy generate
about 3.5% of growth annually in 2013 and 2014, about the same as in
2012. Energy exports are also expected to boost economic growth above 5%
per year in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan.
Middle East and North Africa. Political instability
has affected several countries in the region, particularly oil importers
such as Egypt, Sudan, Jordan, Syria and Lebanon. But several of the oil
exporting countries are seeing robust economic growth despite a scaling
back of oil production. Qatar is projected to generate GDP growth of
5.2% in 2013 and 5% in 2014. Saudi Arabia’s economy is projected to
expand 4.4% in 2013 and 4.2% in 2014.
The entire region is projected to see economic growth of 3.1% in 2013 and 3.7% in 2014, down from 4.8% in 2012.
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—
Sabine Vollmer (svollmer@aicpa.org) is a CGMA Magazine
senior editor.